I love this. In fact,
I love this whole site.
The very last time an incumbent GOP President was challenged by a liberal U.S. Senator was in 1972. And, coincidentally, the country, back then, also was “bitterly divided,” at least according to the media, over a war action on foreign soil.
Richard Nixon barely won re-election that year, taking 49 out of 50 states, and just over 60 percent of the popular vote.
The numbers don't lie, do they?
So, how accurate is Fair Model No. 1?
Measured against the twenty-two presidential contests that occurred between 1916 and 2000, the average “error,” so to speak, was 1.5 percentage points. The largest error, which occurred in 1992, was 5.1 percentage points.
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